This page shows the results of models used to calculate projections for the number of Pennsylvania resident births from 2023 to 2024. The projected figures should be used cautiously. Considerable variation may occur between these projections and the final data from 2023 to 2024, especially for the forecasts for small counties. A short description of the data and methods used to calculate the projections follows the results.
Download all statistics from this page here.
The number of Pennsylvania resident births is projected to be 128,984 in 2024, which is a change of -1.0 percent compared to the number of births in 2022, the most recent year with final data. This is an average annual change in the number of births of -0.5 percent, compared to the average annual change in the number of births of -0.5 percent from 2000 to 2022.
The plot below shows the number of Pennsylvania resident births from 2000 to 2022, as well as the corresponding projections for 2023 to 2024.
The table below shows the number of Pennsylvania resident births by county for 2000, 2010 and 2022; the corresponding projections for 2024; and the average annual percent change in the number of births from 2000 to 2022 and from 2022 to 2024.
We can also display data from the previous table as a map of Pennsylvania counties. The map below shows the average annual percent change in the number of Pennsylvania resident births from 2000 to 2022 and from 2022 to 2024.
All data used on this page are from the Pennsylvania Birth Certificate dataset. An exponential smoothing state space model was used to project the number of births by year for 2023 to 2024 for Pennsylvania and each county in Pennsylvania. The county projections were then udpated to be consistent with the Pennsylvania total.